論文名稱: 誰是泛藍、泛綠認同者?台灣民眾政黨認同的實證分析
Who Are Pan-Blue and Pan-Green Identifiers? Determinants of Party Identifications of Taiwan's Voters
作者: 吳重禮  Chung-li Wu
出處: 台灣的社會變遷1985~2005:傳播與政治行為
出版年: 2013
頁數: 129-174
關鍵字(中): 政黨認同、獨立選民、選民理性、政治態度、投票行為
關鍵字(英): party identification, independent voter, voter rationality, political attitude, voting behavior
摘要(中): 在各類政治態度中,「政黨認同」(party identification)是一項甚為重要的心理成分。見於該研究主題深具重要學理意涵和政治參考價值,本研究探討台灣政黨認同者與獨立選民的基本特質,包括個人社會特徵及其相關政治態度的差別。筆者首先擷取歷年「台灣社會變遷基本調查計畫」所釋出的全國性面訪資料,回顧1990年至2006年台灣民眾政黨認同的變遷情形。其次,筆者參酌既有理論架構,分析2006年「台灣社會變遷基本調查計畫:第五期第二次─公民與國家組」資料,藉由「交叉分析」(cross-tabulation analyses)與「多項勝算對數模型」(multinomial logit models)進行驗證。實證結果顯示,整體而言,在年齡、省籍、地理區域、家戶收入、政治興趣、政府施政滿意評價,以及家庭經濟評估等方面,泛藍、泛綠認同者與獨立選民具有顯著差異。值得說明的是,囿於2006年政治局勢的時空脈絡,民眾政黨認同是否深受影響,仍須進一步觀察和探討。在結論中,本文摘術研究脈絡、實證結果及其學術限制,並提出未來研究的方向與建議。
摘要(英): Amongst a variety of political attitudes, party identification is generally accepted as an important psychological component. Given the academic importance and practical value of this topic, this study examines characteristics of partisans and independent voters, including their sociodemographic characteristics and political attitudes. To this end, I first review the trend in the party identification of Taiwan's voters from 1990 to 2006, using nation-wide survey data obtained from the Taiwan Social Change Survey(TSCS) in various years. I then analyze the 2006 TSCS data(fifth wave of the second phase: section of citizens and nation), and the methodology adopted in this study involves two steps. The first approach is the use of cross-tabulation analyses, and the second method employs a multinomial logit model to evaluate the simultaneous effects of independent variables on the dependent variable. The results reveal that variables of age, ethnicity, region, household income, political interest, evaluation of governmental performance, and microeconomic conditions are significantly different among pan-Blue supporters, pan-Green supporters, and independents. It should be noted that political developments in 2006 might have had a contextual impact on party identification, and this needs to be explored in more depth. In the conclusion, major findings are reviewed, limitations of this study are outlined, and suggestions are made for future research.

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