論文名稱: 民眾政治「兩極化」現象初探:「中間」的變動與啟示
Exploring Political Polarization among the General Public: Lessons from Reading the Fluctuating "Middle"
作者: 張茂桂、陳俐靜  Mau-kuei Chang, Li-ching Chen
出處: 台灣的社會變遷1985~2005:傳播與政治行為
出版年: 2013
頁數: 175-240
關鍵字(中): 政治兩極化、中間立場、政黨支持、統獨立場、自我認同
關鍵字(英): Political polarization, middle-of-the-roader, party preference, Unification-and-Independence, self-identity
摘要(中): 台灣政黨政治呈現所謂藍、綠兩極化的現象,但一般民眾在政治態度上的分布情形是否也有同步兩極化的現象?兩者之間有何關係?本文選取「台灣社會變遷基本調查」(1995-2005年)十年間的六次調查,以三變項的「中間立場」進行初步探究。此三項變項分別為:(1)政黨認同中的「無政黨偏好」、(2)自我認定為是台灣人也是中國人的「雙重認同」,及(3)統獨立場中的「務實者」或者「搖擺者」。本文假定當民眾態度的兩極化出現時,中間比例的線圖會呈現下降的趨勢。民眾在「統獨」態度分布上確有較明確的兩極化跡象,但在「自我認同」定位上反而是「同質化」,朝「我是台灣人」的趨勢發展;而「政黨支持」的態度相當流動,兩極化趨勢並不明確。民眾態度的兩極化,並不是對於政黨衝突的立即反應,而是一個受其影響、漸進且不以直線方式進行的過程。這樣的研究發現可支持公民社會並沒有被政治社會所吞噬的看法,並點出了民主代議政治與民意之間的動態關係。
摘要(英): Taiwan's party politics is said to be polarized along the "Blue vs. Green" divide. We know little, however, about whether the same polarization takes place among the general public. Drawing from the Taiwan Social Change Survey archive, this study selects three "middle-ground" indicators and charts their respective trend lines based on six surveys over a ten-year period(1995-2005). These three indicators are 1)"supporting none of the parties" when asked about "partisan position," 2)"holding dual identities" when asked whether they are "Taiwanese or Chinese," and 3)"taking pragmatic or swinging positions" when asked about their Unification-Independence position. If polarization exists, the trend lines of the middle-of-the-road indicators would display a downward tendency. This study finds that people's standings about Unification-Independence have been clearly more polarized during this period. The majority of standings on self-labeled identities are moving toward the "Taiwanese" end instead of becoming polarized, however. As for respondents' partisan preferences, the trend line for the no-party-preference group fluctuates. The polarization of the general public is only gradually influenced by partisan polarization in a complicated and non-linear way. By analyzing the dynamics between representative democracy and public opinions, this study argues for the autonomy of civil society which is not to be subsumed under the domination of political society.

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